Returns and Risk in NPS and PPF
Returns are usually the first thing investors compare and this is where the two schemes
diverge most sharply.
- NPS invests across equity, corporate debt and
government securities, so its returns move with the market. Over long holding periods, NPS has
historically delivered 12% to 14% annually, largely due to its equity component, but that comes with
year-to-year variability that PPF simply does not have.
- PPF, on the other hand, pays a fixed,
government-declared rate that carries no market risk, making it a reliably safe option regardless of
what happens in the broader economy.
NPS vs PPF Tax Treatment Differences
Both schemes offer tax deductions but NPS offers a meaningfully larger ceiling and an extra
route that survives the new tax regime.
| Deduction |
NPS |
PPF |
| Personal contribution (old regime) |
Up to ₹1.5 lakh under Section 123 |
Up to ₹1.5 lakh under Section 123 |
| Additional personal deduction |
Up to ₹50,000 under Section 124(3), exclusive to NPS |
Not available |
| Employer contribution |
Up to 14% of Basic + DA under Section 124 (both regimes) |
Not applicable |
| New regime status |
Employer contribution deduction survives |
No deduction available |
PPF follows a pure Exempt-Exempt-Exempt structure: contributions, interest, and the maturity
amount are all tax-free. NPS is exempt at contribution and largely exempt at withdrawal but not entirely.
This is a useful distinction to understand before withdrawing a large sum. PFRDA's December 2025 amendment
lets non-government subscribers withdraw up to 80% of the corpus as a lump sum but the Income Tax Act's
exemption under Section 10(12A) still covers only 60% of the corpus. The portion between 60% and 80% may be
taxable at the subscriber's slab rate until this gap between the withdrawal rule and the tax law is formally
resolved. The remaining 20%, reserved for the mandatory annuity, is not taxed at purchase, though the
monthly pension it later pays out is taxed as regular income. This is the one point where PPF's tax
treatment stays cleaner than NPS's.
A note on the new Income-tax Act, 2025: The exemption provisions currently
under Section 10 of the 1961 Act, including Section 10(12A) for NPS withdrawals, are being relocated into
Section 11 of the new Act, backed by a schedule of specific exemptions. This change takes effect from 1
April 2026. The underlying policy is expected to stay the same, so the 60% NPS exemption cap described above
should carry over under its new numbering rather than disappear.
Lock-in and Withdrawal Rules in NPS and PPF
PPF locks funds in for 15 years, with partial withdrawals permitted from the seventh year and
loans available between the third and sixth year. NPS locks funds in until age 60. PFRDA's December 2025
amendment loosened this considerably: subscribers can now make up to four partial withdrawals before 60,
spaced at least four years apart, and can exit early after 15 years in the scheme under specific conditions.
At maturity, non-government NPS subscribers can withdraw the full corpus if it is ₹8 lakh or less, or 80% of
it otherwise, following the current NPS
withdrawal rules, while PPF simply pays out the full balance once the 15-year term, or an extension,
ends.
NPS vs PPF Returns Over 25 Years
To see how the difference in returns plays out in practice, consider an investor contributing
₹1,50,000 a year to each scheme for 25 years, a total of ₹37,50,000 invested in either case.
| Parameter |
PPF (7.1% assumed) |
NPS (12% assumed) |
| Total principal invested |
₹37,50,000 |
₹37,50,000 |
| Estimated growth |
₹58,74,664 |
₹1,62,50,081 |
| Total corpus at year 25 |
₹96,24,664 |
₹2,00,00,081 |
| Confirmed tax-free amount |
100% (₹96,24,664) |
60% (₹1,20,00,048) |
| Lump sum withdrawable (PFRDA rule) |
Not applicable |
80% (₹1,60,00,064), for non-government subscribers |
| Potentially taxable portion |
None |
20% (₹40,00,016), the gap between the 60% tax exemption and the 80% withdrawal rule |
| Mandatory annuity |
Not applicable |
20% (₹40,00,016) |
NPS produces a corpus larger than PPF over this 25-year period, driven almost entirely by the
assumed equity-linked return. Even accounting for the portion of the lump sum that may be taxable under
current law and the 20% reserved for a mandatory annuity, the NPS corpus comfortably exceeds the entire PPF
maturity amount. These figures are illustrative projections based on the stated rate assumptions, not
guaranteed outcomes, since NPS returns depend on actual market performance and the tax treatment of the 60%
to 80% band may still change.
Should You Choose NPS, PPF, or Both?
Neither scheme is a strict upgrade over the other, so the right choice depends on what an
investor is optimising for.
- A guaranteed outcome with zero exposure to market swings points toward PPF, particularly for the portion
of retirement savings that should never be at risk.
- Market-linked growth in exchange for a larger tax deduction, and the potential for a meaningfully bigger
corpus, points toward NPS instead.
A fair number of people skip the either-or question entirely: PPF covers the guaranteed slice
of a retirement plan, NPS covers the growth slice.
Common Mistakes When Comparing NPS and PPF
A few recurring errors show up when investors weigh these two schemes against each other.
- Focusing only on the headline return without accounting for the risk difference behind it
- Ignoring that PPF loses its deduction entirely under the new tax regime, while NPS retains a partial one
- Overlooking that NPS mandatorily annuitises a portion of the corpus, unlike PPF's full and unconditional
payout
- Choosing an investment horizon that does not match either scheme's actual lock-in structure
Conclusion
NPS and PPF serve different roles in a retirement plan rather than competing for the same
one. PPF offers certainty and full tax exemption at every stage, while NPS offers a larger deduction,
professional fund management, and materially higher long-term growth potential in exchange for market risk.
For most investors, the more useful question is not which one to pick, but how much of a retirement
portfolio should go into each.
Talk to a PensionBazaar retirement planning
expert to work out an allocation between NPS and PPF that matches your own risk appetite and
timeline.